One of the sites I've found really useful in watching this election is http://www.electoral-vote.com/. They average out several polls and give the big picture.
If you looked at the map on that site a couple of months ago, you'd note that Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin were light blue-- moderately Democratic-leaning in the Presidential race. You'll note that they're deep blue-- solidly Democratic.
But those weren't the only changes that have happened in the last couple of months. Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Colorado were solid red.
Oh, yeah, and Arizona, John McCain's home state.
Now they range from leaning Republican (light red) to leaning Democrat (light blue). John McCain is losing ground nearly everywhere-- even in his home state, one of the most conservative states in the country.
And what did John McCain do? He spent the day in Pennsylvania, a state that has not gone for a Republican since Reagan, a state where he is behind by over 10 points. This reminds me of Rudy Guliani, whose plan to win the Republican nomination was to skip all of the primaries except Florida. Somehow he was going to miraculously win Florida and that would be the big turnaround.
But, as Bubs so perceptively pointed out in his response to a post about McCain a few days ago, John McCain has become the Black Knight of Monty Python and the Holy Grail:
A lot of fellow liberal/Democrats are worried about a lot of things-- the Bradley effect, cheating at the polls, Limbaugh and Hannity telling their fucktard listeners to lie to pollsters. Look at the polls. Obama is not just beating McCain. He's handing his ass to him. This is not just going to just be a victory-- this is going to be a good ol' fashioned ass-whuppin'.
I've said it many times, that if Ohio is called for Obama next Tuesday night, it's all over. I'm going to stand by that. What's more, I'm going to have a little fun with this. I'm going to have the "Beat Johnny Yen" contest.
Here's how it'll work. I say that they'll call it for Obama by 8:45 PM Central time. I'll choose CNN to be the "designated caller." You have until November 3, midnight, to get your "call it" time in. The person closest to the correct call time will get a prize which I will determine and announce in the next day or two. Post your "call time" here on my blog or email it to me at juanyen at yahoo dot com. Only one entry per blogger-- when you send it to me, no changing allowed. Friends and family members are permitted to enter. The contest is officially open!